Retail trade figures increase despite inflationary pressure

Australian retail turnover rose for the ninth consecutive month in September 2022, despite many Aussies feeling inflation pressure.

Retail trade rose by 0.6 per cent, according to Retail Trade figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The ABS reports Australians spent $35.1 billion in stores and online throughout September – an increase of 17.9 per cent in the past year.

Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said this month’s rise was driven by spending across the hospitality and food industries.

“Food retailing rose one per cent, while cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services rose 1.3 per cent.

“Many retailers remained open for the National Day of Mourning, an additional one-off public holiday in September, and this boosted spending on food, alcohol and dining out,” Dorber said.

Retail sales rise across most categories

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing had the largest percentage rise, up two per cent, following a large fall of 2.3 per cent in August 2022. Other retailing also rose, up 0.2 per cent.

Household goods retailing fell 0.8 per cent, a slight decrease after last month’s considerable rise of 2.6 per cent. The fall in September was softened by the release of new mobile phone models and is the fourth monthly fall in household goods retailing in the last six months. Department stores also fell, down 0.4 per cent.

Retail trade at record levels across Australia

Australian Retailers Association CEO, Paul Zahra, said the figures showed the resilience of Australia’s shoppers.

“It’s fantastic to see the momentum maintained as we head into the all-important Christmas trading period – a time when many of our discretionary retailers make up to two-thirds of their profits. Despite the challenging economic times, retail spending remains extremely healthy, and that’s great news for retail and a positive sign for our broader economy,” Zahra said.

Turnover is at record levels in most states and territories. The Australian Capital Territory had the most significant rise in September 2022, up 1.6 per cent, followed by Western Australia (1.4 per cent), Queensland (1.1 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.1 per cent), Tasmania (0.9 per cent), Victoria (0.4 per cent) and New South Wales (0.3 per cent). South Australia, down 0.2 per cent, was the only state or territory to record a fall, the first in six months after five consecutive rises.

Delta hangover continues

Zahra suggested that while the uptick in trade showed there was a lot to celebrate, the impact of last year’s lockdowns could be influencing the results.

“We are mindful of the impact that inflation and higher prices have on these sales results – with year-on-year comparisons also strongly influenced by the last year’s hangover of the Delta lockdowns.

“We are cautiously optimistic about the months ahead, and the ARA forecasts a three per cent yearly increase in Christmas spending. We also know that for many small businesses, the sales are critical in replenishing cash reserves from the pandemic period, so these results are truly welcome.”

Zahra predicts many Australians will do their Christmas shopping early this year as they aim to get in ahead of inflationary increases, avoid supply issues and secure their gifts well ahead of the Christmas rush.

“We could see a softening of sales as we enter 2023,” he said. “There is likely to be a lag effect from current inflationary conditions, as the full impact of interest rate increases flow through the economy and inflation reaches its forecast peak.

“Overall trading conditions continue to be challenged by supply chain constraints and staff shortages, with vacancies continuing to be at record levels.”

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